Risk of LME tin squeeze remains unresolved; the most-traded SHFE tin contract hits new high of 274,000 yuan [SMM tin futures brief comment]

[Tin Market Daily Review, July 24, 2025]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): closing price: 273,950 yuan/mt, surged 1.88% on the day, with a five-day cumulative gain of 4.59%.

Intraday movement: The night session opened higher driven by LME tin, breaking through the 273,000 yuan resistance level in the afternoon and hitting a high of 274,200 yuan/mt.

LME tin contract: closing price: $34,750/mt, up 2.45% on the day, with trading volume surging to 1,300 lots and open interest rising to 19,400 lots. Price spread: LME cash-3M spot premiums widened to $175/mt, highlighting squeeze risks (a major holder accounts for 50%-79% of positions).

The US and Japan agreed to cut tariffs to 15%, while the US and EU are close to setting a 15% benchmark rate with exemptions for certain industries. Risk-off sentiment pulled back as the US dollar weakened, boosting nonferrous metals. China and the US will resume trade talks next week (July 27-30), with market expectations rising for tariff tensions to ease. Trump pressured the US Fed to cut interest rates, with the probability of a September rate cut rising to 61%. Liquidity easing expectations supported risk assets.

Hold up well: LME tin squeeze risks persist, coupled with optimistic expectations for China-US talks, SHFE tin may test the 280,000 yuan resistance level.